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Climate change and GLM-scenarious by 2050: EEBIO summary

Posted By Vasyl Prydatko On July 9, 2008 @ 2:09 pm In | No Comments

Expected Climate Change in Eastern Europe and Species Based GLM-scenarios by 2050: EEBIO Project Summary

V. Prydatko, G.Kolomytsev

Two EEBIO Projects developed species- and species-climate-change envelopes i.e. ‘species profiles + GLM-scenarious’ – in GIS format (ArcMap 9.1), with separation of some key indexes. First of all – for the ‘land use’ pressure, and which was translated to modeling languages i.e. CLUEs, MSA and other – for the most part of GLOBIO Ukraine Region. There were involved 25 species of all groups, and 25 species-climate examples respectively: 50 species altogether. That is pretend to be sufficient for finding linkages between ‘indicator species distribution’ and ‘climate change’ pressures as well as with total MSA-index. The final ULRMC’s outcome contents 54 species, which were modelled in scope of ‘climate change’ (CC) and/or ‘land use change’ (LUC) – see the ingegrated results below – Table 1. It has been done for the area which was about 5-times more, larger contrary to a planned one. New larger project area is an achievement of the EEBIO-3 experience, available data and technical needs – for better model accuracy (expected project area covers only Ukraine region, but actual modelling coverage provided for almost all of the East Europe).

Table 1 Final outcome of for GLM-procedure and GLM-scenarios modelling in the EEBIO Region (plants – 20, insects – 1, amphibians – 4, birds – 10 and mammals – 18 species, respectively)

English name Latyn name class. Dominated pressure Predicted trend by 2050
Aquatic Warbler Acrocephalus paludicola bird CC NE
European Elk Alces alces mamm CC N
Great Jerboa Allactaga major mamm LUC NW, NWW
Anabasis Anabasis aphylla plant CC E
Wood Anemone Anemone nemorosa plant CC W
Yellow Anemone Anemone ranunculoides plant CC SE
Snowdrop anemone Anemone sylvestris plant CC SW
Imperial Eagle Aquila heliaca bird CC NW
Tauric wormwood Artemisia taurica plant CC W
Dniprov’s Birch Betula borysthenica plant CC (abandon evidently)
Shrubby Birch Betula humilis plant CC no changes
Klokovii Birch Betula klokovii plant LUC (abandon evidently)
Elegant Birch Betula microlepis plant LUC N
River Birch Betula obscura plant LUC N
Silver Birch Betula pendula plant LUC N
Downy Birch Betula pubescens plant CC N
Betula sp. (7 species) Betula sp. (7 species) plant LUC N
Natterjack Toad Bufo calamita amphib LUC N
Jackal Canis aureus mamm LUC no changes
Chestnut Castanea sativa plant CC decreasing, disappearing
Corncrake Crex crex bird LUC increasing
Beech Fagus sylvatica plant CC S
European Licorice Glycyrrhyza glabra plant CC NW
European Tree Frog Hyla arborea amphib LUC N
Blue Hare Lepus timidus mamm LUC NE
Black Grouse Lyrurus tetrix bird LUC NE, SE
Steppe Polecat Mustela eversmanni mamm LUC N-NW
European Polecat Mustela putorius mamm LUC N, NE
Slender-billed Curlew Numenius tenuirostris bird CC increasing locally
Yellow Water-lily Nuphar lutea plant CC NE
Greater Noctule Nyctalus lasiopterus mamm LUC NE, NW
Lesser Noctule Nyctalus leisleri mamm LUC N, decreasing locally
Noctule Nyctalus noctula mamm LUC NE
European Rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus mamm LUC NW-SE
Great Bustard Otis tarda bird LUC NW
White-headed Duck Oxyura leucocephala bird CC NW
Norway Spruce Picea abies plant CC SW
Scotch Pine Pinus silvestris plant CC SE
Alpine Grizzled Skipper Pyrgus andromedae insect CC decreasing locally
Pedunculate Oak Quercus robur plant CC NE
Lesser Horseshoe Bat Rhinolophus hipposideros mamm LUC NE and decreasing locally
Fire Salamander Salamandra salamandra amphib LUC decreasing locally
Red Squirrel Sciurus vulgaris mamm LUC N, and to Caucasia
Little Ground Squirrel Spermophilus pygmaeus mamm LUC NW, NWW
European Turtle Dove Streptopelia turtur bird CC NE
Wild Boar Sus scrofa mamm LUC NE,SE
Wood Grouse Tetrao urogallus bird LUC NE
Small-leaved Lime Tilia cordata plant CC N
Alpine Newt Triturus alpestris amphib LUC decreasing locally
Carpathian Newt Triturus montandoni amphib LUC decreasing locally
Brown Bear Ursus arctos mamm CC NE,SE
Marbled Polecat Vormela peregusna mamm LUC NW

.

Pie chart of the summary:

glm-summaries2050

Official reference to this information:
Prydatko V., Kolomytsev G. Biodiversity Modelling Experiences in Ukraine /Land Use, Climate Change and Biodiversity Modeling: Perspectives and Applications. N.Y.: IGI, 2011, pp. 248-264 pp. DOI: 10.4018/978-1-60960-619-0

***

GIS visualization of some species distribution models are available on ‘Species Profiles’ web section.

See other our supportive publications (Rus): Придатко В., Коломыцев Г. Изменение климата в Украине: потери 13% или приобретение 4% биоразнообразия до 2050 года? [1]/BioModel, 11.11.2008

Prydatko V., Kolomytsev G. GLOBIO-Ukraine: 13%-species-loss or 4%-species-gain… (Rus.)/A4-leaflet/Climate change in Ukraine…/BioModel, 11.11.2008:

[2]


Article printed from BioModel.info: Biodiversity modelling, Species distribution models (SDMs), Spatial analysis, Education: http://biomodel.info

URL to article: http://biomodel.info/publications/glm-trends-by-2050-summary/

URLs in this post:

[1] Придатко В., Коломыцев Г. Изменение климата в Украине: потери 13% или приобретение 4% биоразнообразия до 2050 года?: http://biomodel.info/?page_id=556

[2] Image: http://biomodel.info/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/pasteruk_training.jpg

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