Влияние изменения климата на распространение чебачка амурского (Pseudorasbora parva) в Восточной Европе к 2050 г.

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Распространение амурского чебачка (Pseudorasbora parva) в Восточной Европе в условиях прогнозируемого изменения климата к 2050 году

Г.А. Коломыцев, Ю.К. Куцоконь

С целью оценки влияния ожидаемых изменений климата в Восточной Европе к 2050 году на распространение инвазионных видов создана цифровая пространственная модель распространения амурского чебачка, Pseudorasbora parva (Cypriniformes, Cyprinidae). Исходные картографические материалы представлены современными данными по распространению вида; пакет климатических карт – современными и прогнозируемыми данными, которые соответствуют базовому сценарию развития общества к 2050 году. Результаты моделирования указывают на дальнейшее распространение вида в направлении северо-востока, ожидается расширение ареала в пределах 40% нынешней площади в пределах Восточной Европы. Ожидается, что на север вид распространиться почти к Ладожскому озеру, климатически приемлемые для существования территории появятся также в районе дельты р. Урал на востоке.

Ключевые слова: амурский чебачок, инвазионный вид, модель распространения вида, Восточная Европа, изменение климата

Полный текст статьи доступен на украинском.

Для цитирования:

Коломицев Г.О., Куцоконь Ю.К. Поширення амурського чебачка (Pseudorasbora parva) в Східній Європі в умовах прогнозованої зміни клімату до 2050 року // Науковий вісник НУБіП України. Серія: біологія, біотехнологія, екологія. – 2012. – Вип. 178 – C. 9-15.

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BioModel – это группа экспертов, специализирующихся на решении вопросов биотогеоинформатики: пространственного моделирования биотического разнообразия с применением ГИС-технологий и данных дистанционного зондирования Земли (ДЗЗ). Мы являемся ИТ-группой Украинского Центра Менеджмента Земли и Ресурсов (УЦМЗР), неправительственной организации, цели которой включают применение ДЗЗ, цифровой картографии, ГИС и других ИТ-решений для поддержки управления в приватном и общественном секторах, в масштабах Украины и региона.

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