Models Building Journal

Snowdrop anemone (Anemone sylvestris) Areal Changes (1980s-2008)

Snowdrop anemone (Anemone sylvestris L.) areal changes were modelled with usage of historical, GIS and RS data, which included following.

1a) «Хорология флоры Украины» (1986). 1b) «Екофлора України» (2000-2004). 1c) Vegetation of European Part of the USSR: Analytical Maps I-IX (Attachments)/Vegetation of European Part of the USSR. S.P., Nauka, 1980.—429 pp, in Russian. 2) Atlas Florae Europaeae (1972-1996), edited by Jaakko Jalas and Juha Suominen, together with Raino Lampinen (Vol. 11)/Updated 2004-05-26 by Mikko Heikkinen – Website at . 3) Ukraine Forest in 1990s based on Landsat Data (ULRMC, 2005). The historical map of 80s was scanned , processed and digitized in ArcGIS by V.Prydatko. Forest in 2000s based on Landsat Data (ULRMC, 2005). 4) Ukraine Forest Changes in 1990-2000 based on GIS Change Analyze (ULRMC, 2005). 5) Digital Forest Edges in Ukraine in 1990s and in 2000s (Prydatko et al., 2008).

Map of the species habitats in 1980s is hypothetical, but which is based on the map of European natural steppe-meadow location. The data of Florae Europaeae [2] and Ecoregion [1c] was intersected in GIS environment with remote sensing data of 1990-2000 [3, 4]. The data and the MOVIE shows that natural habitats of A. sylvestris changed seriously during last 25 years, and it has new tendency of expansion to southern part of steppe natural zone (in GLOBIO Ukraine Region). The main causes of change are land use (increasing of forest edges due to forest fragmentation, changes of steppe-meadow condition), and possibly climate change. The example demonstrates a step to GLM-model.

See full story about the trends:

Models Building Journal

European Elk (A.alces):Habitat Changes Modelling, Step 2

Animated modelling of A. alces areal in the GLOBIO Ukraine Region (1928-2008) was based on: i) historical maps, ii) reconstructed forest coverage of 1928s, iii) remote sensing data of 2000s. The Step#2 forestall a GLM modelling stage i.e. Step#3. Sources of information for the model: 1) Map of the USSR European Part Vegetation, M1:4, 000, 000, drawn up by Prof. J.Kuznetsov (1928) – in Russian. The map was granted by the Vernadsky National Library (Kyiv). Vectorization made by V.Prydatko, A.Ischuk, Y.Apetova, A.Kalynychenko (ULRMC). 2) USSR Forest Atlas (1973)/Forest Game Birds and Animals – in Russian, granted by the Vernadsky National Library (Kyiv); vectorization by V.Prydatko, A.Ischuk, A.Kalynychenko (ULRMC). 3) BioDAT (in Russian) –, prepared by A.Puzachenko; 4) Russian Federation Mammals (in Russian) –, prepared by B.Sheftel; 5) Data of the Ukraine State Statistics Committee;6) Terra MODIS (2000);7)ULRMC Data on forested areas in Ukraine in 1990s and 2000s based on Landsat;8)GSF Index data on areal of the species in 19970s and in 2007 (Prydatko pers. inf.);9) ULRMC algorithm on A.alces habitats modelling.

The integrated map shows probable changes of the species area (expansion to the North and South) during the last 80 years because of serious forest area changes (fragmentation), infrastructure and human pressures, and climate change.

Note: two of last animals were short dead by poachers in Cherkassy region of Ukraine in March, 2011.

GIS Map authors: V.Prydatko (ULRMC), G.Kolomytsev (IZ NASU) and A.Kozlova (CASR NASU).
More details about previous EEBIO Project and current GLOBIO:

Models Building Journal

Brown Bear (Ursus arctos):Areal Changes Modelling by 2050s

The maps shows areal changes of Brown bear (U. arctos) in GLOBIO Ukraine Region by 2050s – due to expected climate changes (with taking into account land use changes in the GLOBIO Ukraine Region). NB: the model reflects ‘convenience’ of the habitats, for example, in Crimea since disappearance of the species here in XVII c. (Makarov, 1947).

Models Building Journal

White-headed Duck historical distribution movie available

White-headed Duck (O. leucocephala) Areal Changes Movie (1810-2004s)
Scenario 1
Habitat changes modeling based on mean temperature in May of the 1950s and 1970s (GIS CCS).
The example demonstrates that theoretically these habitats have moved to the north (Krivenko, 2001) and/or to the north-west. (See a temperature condition map for the 1950s, enclosed additionally.) The map reflects key data based on:
i) BioDAT – in Russian, prepared by V.Vinogradov –; other – in Russian: Kryvenko, Vinogradov (2001);
ii) Key Bird Areas in European Russia (2000) – in Russian;
iii) Birds of Europe (1999);
iv) Ukraine Red Data Book (1994) – in Ukrainian, which used the data of Shatilov (1874), Nikolsky (1891), Somov (1979), Valkh (1899, 1900, 1911), Pochosky (1911), Kostiuchenko (1925), Averin (1928), Orlov (1941), Kistyakovsky (1950,1957), Kyseliov (1950), Klimenko (1950), Ogulchansky (1956), Gavrylenko (1958), Strautman (1963), Lysenko (1967,1991), Ivanov (1974), Stepanyan (1975), Kostin (1983), Sabinevsky (1985), Gorban, Lysenko (1994);
v) Kazakhstan Red Data Book – in Russian –, which used the data of Dolgushin (1960);
vi) Helping the White-Headed Duck (1989);
vii) Asian Waterfowl Census (1989); Gordienko, Drobovtsev, Koshelev (1986); Auezov, Khohlov et al. (1986); Drobovtcev (1983); Kryvitsky et al. (1985);
viii) S.Erokhov –; Gavrin, Klepikov (1960), Prydatko, Grachev (1989), Prydatko (2001).
GIS Map compilers: V.Prydatko (ULRMC), G.Kolomytsev (KNU).

Engine Functioning Journal

Tag module beta testing

A new tag module was installed. Currently it works in beta test mode to provide compatibility with biomodel interface.

Models Building Journal

European Elk Areal Modelling with GSF (Step 1)

alces-alces-gsf_b.png GSF Index (not real areal!) demonstrates decreasing of casual references to the species were related to settlements during 1970-2008 in GLOBIO Ukraine Region. Step 2 will relate the refrenced points to original habitats of the species.

Models Building Journal

Quercus robur (oak): expected distribution by 2050

q_robur_2000-2050.gifq_robur_changes.gifTwo maps shows expected changes in distribution of Pedunculate Oak (Quercus robur) in GLOBIO Ukraine Region by 2050 – due to expected climate changes.

Models Building Journal

Quercus robur (oak):distribution model has verified

q_verification.gifDistribution comparison map creation. BioModel group has compared current distribution GIS-map of the species with a distribution that has been predicted by the model based on oak’s climatic requirements.

Bd Training Package Models Building Journal

A step to CLUE: forests-to-ag transformation in 80s

forest_to_ag80s_vpr.pngBioModel group reconstructed not well known transformation data on of natural forests to agricultural lands in 1980s in Ukraine and Belarus mainly based on published archived map data.