Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), GLM

Eurasian lynx (Felis lynx) behaviour reflects fasten changes of natural habitats of many other wood species, in the Region, which location depends on deciduous and mixed forests condition.(It must be rare combination of forests with high level of integrity, and with swamps and wind-fallen trees). Some regional habitat statistics was processed partly by EEBIO team in 2006, but an observation map has not been published in EEBIO Searchable System because of lack of some important historical details. New EEBIO modelling took into account data of 1928-2007 that was digitized and adopted for the Regional purposes. The integrated map (see an animation below) shows outspoken thawing of the species areal in GLOBIO Ukraine Region during last 80 years due to serious fragmentation of deciduous and mixed forest and other green corridors, and because of other human pressures, and possibly climate change. (The example was a pre-final step before a generalized linear models – GLM, which told more about probable dependence of the habitats on climate change). Finally, BioModel reconstructed historical changes of location of natural habitats: GLM scenario demonstrated habitats decreasing and ‘NE’ trend of the species by 2050. The historical map of 80s [6] was scanned, processed and digitized by V.Prydatko with kind help of V.Makarenko (ULRMC). The common maps of 70s and 80s (i.e. potential lynx habitats [3]) were reconstructed to a near realistic habitats by means of erasing of the common area by rivers and settlements. That technical steps required special adoption not only of the scanned map, but first of that older Digital Ukraine 1:500000. The latest IUCN map of 2007 [12] was transformed by us to a smaller one, and it is why it demonstrated a generalized fragment of the areal. The Statistic Bulletin [14] contents information about presence or absence of the species in concrete protected areas, and as the result we build detailed layer of habitat polygons as for 2002 with usage of official data. The picture argued that IUCN, WCMC, EMA web services used uncorrectable shapes of F. lynx habitats in Ukrainina part of the Carpathian Mountains. It is much smaller and more fragmented contrary to that numerous observation maps. Package of sources includes following. 1) Felis lynx/EEBIO GIS (ULRMC, 2006). 2) Felis lynx/EcoProfile v.2.0 (MNP, 2008). 3) Map of the USSR European Part Vegetation, M1:4,000, 000, drawn up by Prof. J.Kuznetsov (1928) – Rus. The map was granted by the Vernadsky National Library (Kyiv) – vectorization made by V.Prydatko, A.Ischuk, Y.Apetova, A.Kalynychenko (ULRMC). 4) Forest Game Birds and Animals/USSR Forest Atlas [1973] – Rus, granted to the EEBIO Project by the Vernadsky National Library (Kyiv), vectorization by V.Prydatko et al. (ULRMC). 5) BioDAT (1980s) – Rus., developer – A. Puzachenko – . 6) Vegetation of European Part of the USSR: Analytical Maps I-IX (Attachments)/Vegetation of European Part of the USSR. S.P., Nauka, 1980.—429 pp, Rus.. 7) Ukraine Forest in 1990s based on Landsat Data (ULRMC, 2005). 8) Ukraine Forest in 2000s based on Landsat Data (ULRMC, 2005). 9) Felis lynx/Red Data Book of Ukraine (1994),Ukr. 10) Felis lynx/IUCN… 2007. 11) Digital Ukraine 1:500000 (МЦЕК,2001).11) Kapos V. et al. Forest biodiversity indicators. UNEP-WCMC, 2001. 12) IUCN 2007. Lynx lynx. In: IUCN 2007. European Mammal Assessment http://ec.europa.eu/environment/nature/conservation/species/ema/. Downloaded on 11 May 2007. 13) Main Forested Ukraine Protected Areas (2006) – the GIG data was granted to ULRMC by the State Service of Protected Areas of Ukraine. 14) Statistics Bulletin. About Protected Areas Fund of Ukraine in 2002 (the form #1-zapovidnyk). Kyiv: SSCU, 2003.- 171 p. GIS-maps: V.Prydatko and G.Kolomytsev (ULRMC); GLM map: V.Makarenko, V.Prydatko, G.Kolomytsev (ULRMC). Last update: July 17, 2008.

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