Влияние изменения климата на распространение белки обыкновенной (Sciurus vulgaris) в Восточной Европе к 2050 г.

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Оценка потенциального влияния прогнозируемого климата на распространение белки обыкновенной (Sciurus vulgaris) на территории Восточной Европы к 2050 году

Г.А. Коломыцев

Опубликовано в украинском научном специализированном журнале “Научные доклады Национального университета биоресурсов и природопользования Украины” (укр). (Апрель 2012)

С целью оценки потенциального влияния ожидаемых изменений климата в Восточной Европе к 2050 году создана цифровая пространственная модель распространения белки обыкновенной (Sciurus vulgaris, L. 1758). Исходные картографические материалы представлены историческими и современными данными по распространению вида; пакет климатических карт – данными современного климата и прогностических данных, которые соответствуют базовому сценарию развития общества, состоянием на 2050 год. Источником климатических данных являлась модель IMAGE. В исследовании использован подход обобщённых линейных моделей (GLM). Результаты моделирования указывают на ожидаемое смещение границ климатически приемлемых для существования вида территорий в направлении севера. Расчёты показывают, что к 2050-му году стабильная зона распространения белки обыкновенной в условиях изменения климата может составлять 89,8% площади её ареала. Ожидается, что территории, которые могут стать неприемлемыми для существования вида вследствие изменения климата, будут находиться преимущественно в пределах Украины.

Ключевые слова: белка обыкновенная, Sciurus vulgaris, модель распространения вида, Восточная Европа, изменение климата

Полный текст статьи доступен на украинском.

Для цитирования:

Коломицев Г.О. Вплив зміни клімату на поширення вивірки (Sciurus vulgaris) у Східній Європі до 2050 р. / Г.О. Коломицев // Наукові доповіді НУБіП – 2012 – 2 (31).
http://archive.nbuv.gov.ua/e-journals/Nd/2012_2/12kgo.pdf

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BioModel – это группа экспертов, специализирующихся на решении вопросов биотогеоинформатики: пространственного моделирования биотического разнообразия с применением ГИС-технологий и данных дистанционного зондирования Земли (ДЗЗ). Мы являемся ИТ-группой Украинского Центра Менеджмента Земли и Ресурсов (УЦМЗР), неправительственной организации, цели которой включают применение ДЗЗ, цифровой картографии, ГИС и других ИТ-решений для поддержки управления в приватном и общественном секторах, в масштабах Украины и региона.

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