Natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) habitats change modelling in EEBIO Region in scope of the IMAGE climate change data: GLM-scenario by 2050

V.Prydatko, G.Kolomytsev

Natterjack toad (B.calamita) is a species from Appendix II of the Bern Convention and Annex IV of the EU Natural Habitats Directive, and it has protective status in accordance with national and sub-national legislation throughout much of its range. It was mentioned also in many regional, national and sub-national ‘red lists’ and scientific reports of numerous protected areas. It is included to the Red Data Book of Ukraine (1994), and in accordance with which the main threads are ‘land-use’ pressures. We found out that some modern IUCN data of 2007 [2] reflects state of the species in former USSR as for 1990s’, and that could be used by the BioModel team for scenarios building. ULRMC’ Biotic-GIS-group built a GLM-scenario of the habitat changes for the species (in scope of expected climate change and which was based on IMAGE-model climate change data by 2050). The scenario demonstrated probable active changes (movement) of the areal to ‘N’ – see more with summarized table on the BioModel web-page. The sources have been used for the modelling included: i) digital Ukraine 1:200.000 (2005); IMAGE-data by 2050; ESRI ArcMap 9.2 software; R-software; publications [1, 2].

The model is published with the assistance of ULRMC, funded by ‘Projection of Species- and Species-Climate Based Models on to the GLOBIO Ukraine Region, and Scenarios Development’ Project according to the Contract Е/555050/01/МО (2006) between The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP, Bilthoven) and International Association ‘Ukrainian Land and Resource Management Center’ (ULRMC, Kyiv).


  1. The Red Data Book of Ukraine (1994).
  2. IUCN, Conservation International, and NatureServe. 2006. Global Amphibian Assessment. 2006

Accessed on: 04 May 2006 Published on: July 09, 2008 Last updated on: April 30, 2009


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