Eurasian Elk (Alces alces), GLM

aalces-smAlces alces: model of expected distribution in 2050 by GLM (forced by climate) .

Current potential distribution (note that for lagre mammal besides climate options spacious habitats presence are very important, so even in 50×50 km pixel elk can be absent even if climate is acceptable) Additionally, supported populations of elk can be found in Ukraine, which do not reflect natural distribution (and do not included into model). . The map shows expected changes in elk (Alces alces) distribution to 2050 due to climate changes. Distribution data from 1970s to 2000 based on EEBIO project materials compiled from different sources. Prediction in elk distribution to 2050 modelled by IMAGE climate predictions using GLM approach. . .

Map authors: G.Kolomytsev, V.Prydatko Last update: June 10, 2008.

alces-alces.jpg The map reflects key data based on: BioDAT (in Russian) –, prepared by A. Puzachenko; Russian Federation Mammals (in Russian) –, prepared by B.Sheftel; and the data of Ukraine State Statistics Committee The integrated map shows probable changes of the species area (expansion to the North and to the South) during last 25 years may be bacause of serious forest area changes and infrasrtucture increasing. Alces alces (elk) climate envelope building (continuing) in the framework of the Species-climate-change project . Animated modelling of A. alces areal in the GLOBIO Ukraine Region (1928s-2008s) is based on: i) historical maps, ii) reconstructed forest coverage of 1928s, iii) remote sensing data of 2000s. Full animated story about modelling steps available below. The Step#2 forestall a GLM modelling stage i.e. Step#3. Sources of information for the model: 1) Map of the USSR European Part Vegetation, M1:4, 000, 000, drawn up by Prof. J.Kuznetsov (1928) – in Russian. The map was granted by the Vernadsky National Library (Kyiv). Vectorization made by V.Prydatko, A.Ischuk, Y.Apetova, A.Kalynychenko (ULRMC). 2) USSR Forest Atlas (1973)/Forest Game Birds and Animals – in Russian, granted by the Vernadsky National Library (Kyiv); vectorization by V.Prydatko, A.Ischuk, A.Kalynychenko (ULRMC). 3) BioDAT (in Russian) –, prepared by A.Puzachenko; 4) Russian Federation Mammals (in Russian) –, prepared by B.Sheftel; 5) Data of the Ukraine State Statistics Committee;6) Terra MODIS (2000);7)ULRMC Data on forested areas in Ukraine in 1990s and 2000s based on Landsat;8)GSF Index data on areal of the species in 19970s and in 2007 (Prydatko pers. inf.);9) ULRMC algorithm on A.alces habitats modelling. The integrated map shows probable changes of the species area (expansion to the North and South) during the last 80 years because of serious forest area changes (fragmentation), infrastructure and human pressures, and climate change. . GIS Map authors: V.Prydatko (ULRMC), G.Kolomytsev (IZ NASU) and A.Kozlova (CASR NASU). More details about previous EEBIO Project and current GLOBIO: i) see this web-portal, ii) . EP support Supportive logarithmic approximation based on our new EcoProfile 2.1 data (Scenario #1) shows that the species can migrate outside of Ukraine earlier then GLM has forecasted. It can be in 2017s – if society will do nothing with management and sustainability of natural habitats of the species. GLM argued that it could be in 2030s.

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