White-headed Duck (Oxyura leucocephala), GLM

Scenario 1 Habitat changes modeling based on mean temperature in May of the 1950s and 1970s (GIS CCS). The example demonstrates that theoretically these habitats have moved to the north (Krivenko, 2001) and/or to the north-west. (See a temperature condition map for the 1950s, enclosed additionally.) The map reflects key data based on: i) BioDAT – in Russian, prepared by V.Vinogradov – www.biodat.ru; other – in Russian: Kryvenko, Vinogradov (2001); ii) Key Bird Areas in European Russia (2000) – in Russian; iii) Birds of Europe (1999); iv) Ukraine Red Data Book (1994) – in Ukrainian, which used the data of Shatilov (1874), Nikolsky (1891), Somov (1979), Valkh (1899, 1900, 1911), Pochosky (1911), Kostiuchenko (1925), Averin (1928), Orlov (1941), Kistyakovsky (1950,1957), Kyseliov (1950), Klimenko (1950), Ogulchansky (1956), Gavrylenko (1958), Strautman (1963), Lysenko (1967,1991), Ivanov (1974), Stepanyan (1975), Kostin (1983), Sabinevsky (1985), Gorban pers.info), Lysenko (1994); v) Kazakhstan Red Data Book – in Russian – http://vkgu.ukg.kz/vk3_2.dbp#1, which used the data of Dolgushin (1960); vi) Helping the White-Headed Duck (1989); vii) Asian Waterfowl Census (1989); Gordienko, Drobovtsev, Koshelev (1986); Auezov, Khohlov et al. (1986); Drobovtcev (1983); Kryvitsky et al. (1985); viii) S.Erokhov – pers.info; Gavrin, Klepikov (1960), Prydatko, Grachev (1989), Prydatko (2001). GIS Map compilers: V.Prydatko (ULRMC), G.Kolomytsev (KNU). . Oxyura leucocephala climate-habitat changes (1950s-1970s) mov1.gif Habitat changes map with mean temperature in may on background. . . . EP support Scenario #1 – supportive logarithmic approximation shows that the species probably leaved the Project Area earlier then in 90s, but contrary to presence of ’appropriate’ natural habitats untill 2008s i.e. ’swamps mainly’ were associated with GSF-index search results. Our GLM example forecasted migration of the species area to the North-West. Prepared by: V.Prydatko, O.Savchenko and G.Kolomytsev (ULRMC).

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