Climate change and GLM-scenarious by 2050: EEBIO summary

Expected Climate Change in Eastern Europe and Species Based GLM-scenarios by 2050: EEBIO Project Summary

V. Prydatko, G.Kolomytsev

Two EEBIO Projects developed species- and species-climate-change envelopes i.e. ‘species profiles + GLM-scenarious’ – in GIS format (ArcMap 9.1), with separation of some key indexes. First of all – for the ‘land use’ pressure, and which was translated to modeling languages i.e. CLUEs, MSA and other – for the most part of GLOBIO Ukraine Region. There were involved 25 species of all groups, and 25 species-climate examples respectively: 50 species altogether. That is pretend to be sufficient for finding linkages between ‘indicator species distribution’ and ‘climate change’ pressures as well as with total MSA-index. The final ULRMC’s outcome contents 54 species, which were modelled in scope of ‘climate change’ (CC) and/or ‘land use change’ (LUC) – see the ingegrated results below – Table 1. It has been done for the area which was about 5-times more, larger contrary to a planned one. New larger project area is an achievement of the EEBIO-3 experience, available data and technical needs – for better model accuracy (expected project area covers only Ukraine region, but actual modelling coverage provided for almost all of the East Europe).

Table 1 Final outcome of for GLM-procedure and GLM-scenarios modelling in the EEBIO Region (plants – 20, insects – 1, amphibians – 4, birds – 10 and mammals – 18 species, respectively)

English name	Latyn name	class.	Dominated pressure	Predicted trend by 2050
Aquatic Warbler	Acrocephalus paludicola	bird	CC	NE
European Elk	Alces alces	mamm	CC	N
Great Jerboa	Allactaga major	mamm	LUC	NW, NWW
Anabasis	Anabasis aphylla	plant	CC	E
Wood Anemone	Anemone nemorosa	plant	CC	W
Yellow Anemone	Anemone ranunculoides	plant	CC	SE
Snowdrop anemone	Anemone sylvestris	plant	CC	SW
Imperial Eagle	Aquila heliaca	bird	CC	NW
Tauric wormwood	Artemisia taurica	plant	CC	W
Dniprov’s Birch	Betula borysthenica	plant	CC	(abandon evidently)
Shrubby Birch	Betula humilis	plant	CC	no changes
Klokovii Birch	Betula klokovii	plant	LUC	(abandon evidently)
Elegant Birch	Betula microlepis	plant	LUC	N
River Birch	Betula obscura	plant	LUC	N
Silver Birch	Betula pendula	plant	LUC	N
Downy Birch	Betula pubescens	plant	CC	N
Betula sp. (7 species)	Betula sp. (7 species)	plant	LUC	N
Natterjack Toad	Bufo calamita	amphib	LUC	N
Jackal	Canis aureus	mamm	LUC	no changes
Chestnut	Castanea sativa	plant	CC	decreasing, disappearing
Corncrake	Crex crex	bird	LUC	increasing
Beech	Fagus sylvatica	plant	CC	S
European Licorice	Glycyrrhyza glabra	plant	CC	NW
European Tree Frog	Hyla arborea	amphib	LUC	N
Blue Hare	Lepus timidus	mamm	LUC	NE
Black Grouse	Lyrurus tetrix	bird	LUC	NE, SE
Steppe Polecat	Mustela eversmanni	mamm	LUC	N-NW
European Polecat	Mustela putorius	mamm	LUC	N, NE
Slender-billed Curlew	Numenius tenuirostris	bird	CC	increasing locally
Yellow Water-lily	Nuphar lutea	plant	CC	NE
Greater Noctule	Nyctalus lasiopterus	mamm	LUC	NE, NW
Lesser Noctule	Nyctalus leisleri	mamm	LUC	N, decreasing locally
Noctule	Nyctalus noctula	mamm	LUC	NE
European Rabbit	Oryctolagus cuniculus	mamm	LUC	NW-SE
Great Bustard	Otis tarda	bird	LUC	NW
White-headed Duck	Oxyura leucocephala	bird	CC	NW
Norway Spruce	Picea abies	plant	CC	SW
Scotch Pine	Pinus silvestris	plant	CC	SE
Alpine Grizzled Skipper	Pyrgus andromedae	insect	CC	decreasing locally
Pedunculate Oak	Quercus robur	plant	CC	NE
Lesser Horseshoe Bat	Rhinolophus hipposideros	mamm	LUC	NE and decreasing locally
Fire Salamander	Salamandra salamandra	amphib	LUC	decreasing locally
Red Squirrel	Sciurus vulgaris	mamm	LUC	N, and to Caucasia
Little Ground Squirrel	Spermophilus pygmaeus	mamm	LUC	NW, NWW
European Turtle Dove	Streptopelia turtur	bird	CC	NE
Wild Boar	Sus scrofa	mamm	LUC	NE,SE
Wood Grouse	Tetrao urogallus	bird	LUC	NE
Small-leaved Lime	Tilia cordata	plant	CC	N
Alpine Newt	Triturus alpestris	amphib	LUC	decreasing locally
Carpathian Newt	Triturus montandoni	amphib	LUC	decreasing locally
Brown Bear	Ursus arctos	mamm	CC	NE,SE
Marbled Polecat	Vormela peregusna	mamm	LUC	NW

.

Pie chart of the summary:

Official reference to this information:
Prydatko V., Kolomytsev G. Biodiversity Modelling Experiences in Ukraine /Land Use, Climate Change and Biodiversity Modeling: Perspectives and Applications. N.Y.: IGI, 2011, pp. 248-264 pp. DOI: 10.4018/978-1-60960-619-0

***

GIS visualization of some species distribution models are available on ‘Species Profiles’ web section.

See other our supportive publications (Rus): Придатко В., Коломыцев Г. Изменение климата в Украине: потери 13% или приобретение 4% биоразнообразия до 2050 года?/BioModel, 11.11.2008

Prydatko V., Kolomytsev G. GLOBIO-Ukraine: 13%-species-loss or 4%-species-gain… (Rus.)/A4-leaflet/Climate change in Ukraine…/BioModel, 11.11.2008: