Red squirrel habitats change modelling in Eastern Europe in the scope of climate change according to new generation scenarios by 2100

Training-package
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Species profiles
- BeechBeech: model of expected distribution in 2050 by GLM (forced by climate) . current potential distribution Differences in current distribution map and distribution (see please picture above), predicted by model (based on climatic requirements, modelled by GLM) are relatively significant. . The map shows expected changes in Beech (Fagus sylvatica) distribution to 2050 due to climate changes. Map visualize appearance of the climatic suitable territories for beech on east to 2050 (which is actually steppe and potentially can’t be acceptable for Fagus sylvatica survival by other options). Note please that not all of the predicted “potentially suitable” (by climate parameters) territory contain suitable habitats. Model is based on GLM methodology. Input climate data derived from IMAGE model, distribution map compiled based on Biodat maps. . . Map authors: G.Kolomytsev, V.Prydatko Last update: June 09, 2008. . Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) habitat changes modelling result demonstrates: i) possible enlargement (restoration) of the species natural habitats – Scenario #1, and ii) possible artificial enlargement of the habitats to the East ‘for cost’ of settlements i.e. its green zones (gardens, parks etc.) – in the GLOBIO Ukraine Region. See full animated story about trends: Fagus sylvatica L. areal changes were modelled with usage…
- Brown bearBrown Bear (Ursus arctos) habitats change modelling in EEBIO Region in scope of the IMAGE climate change data: GLM-scenarios by 2050 Ursus arctos L.: natural habitat changes and accidental GSF-response by settlements based on open Internet sources, GSF software and RS- and GIS-analyze (1970, 2007) GSF is an additional searchable test-program made in ULRMC for the project purposes [1], and which used available Internet sources. GSF calculates number of causes, when Latin names of selected species were connected with a GIS-name of a settlement plus a year (for a concrete territory): ‘Ursus arctos 2007’, Ursus arctos 1970’ etc. A basic authors’ hypothesis was that series of respective settlements may adjoin ‘natural’ or ‘past-natural’ habitats of the species or respective species migratory areas. There were 20891 settlement names in the GSF-GIS test and that was overlapped with modeled U.arctos natural habitat based on RS data and special GIS analyze [2]. The map in GIS showed that during 1970-2007 number of cases of the responses increased (against a background of slowly destroyed original habitats!) Authors suppose that it is not only result of increasing of awareness of local people or mass media, but also result of the species movement, and which populations…
- Eurasian ElkAlces alces: model of expected distribution in 2050 by GLM (forced by climate) . current potential distribution (note that for lagre mammal besides climate options spacious habitats presence are very important, so even in 50×50 km pixel elk can be absent even if climate is acceptable) Additionally, supported populations of elk can be found in Ukraine, which do not reflect natural distribution (and do not included into model). . The map shows expected changes in elk (Alces alces) distribution to 2050 due to climate changes. Distribution data from 1970s to 2000 based on EEBIO project materials compiled from different sources. Prediction in elk distribution to 2050 modelled by IMAGE climate predictions using GLM approach. . . Map authors: G.Kolomytsev, V.Prydatko Last update: June 10, 2008. The map reflects key data based on: BioDAT (in Russian) – www.biodat.ru, prepared by A. Puzachenko; Russian Federation Mammals (in Russian) – www.sevin.ru, prepared by B.Sheftel; and the data of Ukraine State Statistics Committee The integrated map shows probable changes of the species area (expansion to the North and to the South) during last 25 years may be bacause of serious forest area changes and infrasrtucture increasing. Alces alces (elk) climate envelope building (continuing) in…
- Pedunculate OakPedunculate Oak (Quercus robur): Climate Change and Cartographical and GLM-distribution Modelling by 2030 and 2050 Case-research #1 The model is published with the assistance of ULRMC, funded by ‘Projection of Species- and Species-Climate Based Models on to the GLOBIO Ukraine Region, and Scenarios Development’ Project according to the Contract Е/555050/01/МО (2006) between The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP, Bilthoven) and International Association ‘Ukrainian Land and Resource Management Center’ (ULRMC, Kyiv). Quercus robur (Fagaceae) – current and predicted distribution modelling The table shows a difference: ‘current distribution’ contrary to ‘predicted distribution’ by the model (based on climatу change data i.e. GLM-scenario). The map shows expected changes in distribution of Q. robur by 2050 due to well known climate changes. Map visualizes a shift of expected potentially-suitable-habitats of the species to the north. The model is based on GLM method and R-statistics. The basic climate change data is derived from an IMAGE model package. The integrated distribution map was compiled with usage of data from local sources of the information as well as the Flora Europaea Atlas map. Map authorы: G.Kolomytsev (IZ NASU), V.Prydatko (ULRMC. Published on: May 12, 2008. Last updated on: May 1, 2009. Case-research #2 Quercus robur (Fagaceae): overlap…
- Red squirrelRed squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris) habitats change modelling in EEBIO Region in scope of the IMAGE climate change data: GLM-scenario by 2050 V.Makarenko, V.Prydatko, G.Kolomytsev Sciurus vulgaris Linnaeus, 1758 red squirrel, eurasian red squirrel ardilla roja (spanish), ecureuil roux (french) vyvirka, vyvirka lisova (ukr) Red Squirrel is most abundant species in large tracts of coniferous forest and also occurs in deciduous woods, mixed forest, parks, gardens, and small stands of conifers. Its diet is mainly vegetarian, consisting of seeds, acorns, fungus, bark, and sapwood, although it occasionally takes animal prey (young birds and eggs). The main expected threats to this species in EEBIO (and GLOBIO Ukraine) region are habitat loss and fragmentation. Simple comparison of basic ‘1980s’ and ‘1990s’ maps in GIS environment demonstrated probable changes of species areal. Official local statistics in Ukraine state that the trend looks stable. Based on our polynomial approximation test of 3th-degree (R2=0.97) we could argue that it would not be stable by 2050. GLM scenario shows that the species habitats have migrate to the northern areas (N) and partly to Crimea; finally, the areal will be smaller in GLOBIO Ukraine Region. See more with a summarized table on BioModel web-page. The model is published…
- Stone morokoStone moroko Pseudorasbora parva Temminck & Schlegel, 1846 (Cypriniformes, Cyprinidae) SYNONYMS Fundulus virescens, Leuciscus parvus, Micraspius mianowskii, Pseudorasbora altipinna, Pseudorasbora depressirostris, Pseudorasbora fowleri, Pseudorasbora monstrosa, Pseudorasbora parva parvula, Pseudorasbora parva tenuis, Pseudorasbora parvus Common names: Stone moroco, topmouth gudgeon, false razbora (GB), Blaubandbarbling, Amurbarbling, Pseudokeilfleckbarbe, Asiatischer Grundling (DE), Bandgrundling (DK), Ebarasboora (EE), Rytinis gruzlelis (LT), Amuras cebaceks (LV), czebaczek amurski (PL), Tschebatchek, Cebacok amurskij (RU). Stone moroko is a fish belonging to the Cyprinid family, native to Asia, but introduced and now considered an invasive species in Europe. The fish’s size is rarely above 8cm and usually 2 to 7.5cm long. Minimum temperature for reproduction is 15-19oC. Native range The native range of P. parva is the East Asian subregion including the basins of the rivers Amur, Yang-tze, Huang-ho, Japanese islands (Kiusiu, Sikoku and the southern and central parts of Honsiu), western and southern parts of the Korean Peninsula and Taiwan (Minkiang river system). In Europe it was first recorded in 1961 from southern Romania and Albania. In 1972 the species was recorded from the European part of the former USSR – the Danube delta and Dniester. In slightly over 40 years it has almost entirely colonised Europe, proceeding rapidly…
- All profilesThis BioModel-web section includes some separate description (examples) of species profiles, which reflects unique details and outcome of the modelling as well as other regional and local supportive details i.e. alternative scenarios. (Note: see more updated GLM-species-scenarios as for May 2009 here as well as modelling summary and/or data for downloads). The expected examples will take into account two key causes of change i.e. ‘land use’ [LU] and ‘climate change’ [CC]. Some previous regionally sound research have demonstrated that LU-pressure could be much more intensive contrary to that ‘CC-pressure’ or it would be a combination of these both factors. On the other hand that distribution shifts are more distinct on regional or global scale due to climate change. Proposed profiles will content respective examples and descriptions. For the EEBIO Project BioModel team produced and incorporated more local scientific data into updated ‘EcoProfile 2.1′ data base of MNP (RIVM). Now the package contents 167 species profiles including 90 new species that were entered during February-May (mammals – 27, vascular plants – 25, invertebrates – 12). Population trends were lighted in points (i.e. from 0 to 100) and in scope of the natural zones: Carpathian Mountainous, Crimea Mountainous, Ukrainian Steppe, Ukrainian Forest-Steppe and Polissya…
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In Ukraine during 2008–2010, the first SDM matched the red squirrel (S. vulgaris) based on GLM-by-2050, and which covered Eastern Europe, was developed and used by the Land and Resource Management Center (ULRMC, Kyiv). Our new study reveals further development of the analysis by using relevant IPCC climate change scenarios. We took into account materials on S. vulgaris (and S. anomalus) distribution, as well as selected associated species, and the WorldClim with respective maps and current bioclimatic variables, and its projections for four relevant scenarios which combined SSPs & RCPs by 2100. The simulations of scenario SSP1 & RCP2.6 associated with an average temperature increase of 1.5 °C show that climate change could cause the loss of 12 % of suitable habitats of the species in Eastern Europe and 49 % in Ukraine. The simulations for SSP2 & RCP4.5 (with average temperature increase of 1.8 °C) demonstrates, respectively, a potential loss of 14 % and 57 % of suitable habitats. Simulations of SSP3 & RCP7.0 and SSP5 & RCP8.5 scenario (with average temperature increase of >> 2 °C) shows a loss of 30 % and 41 % of suitable habitats within Eastern Europe, and more than 90 % in Ukraine. Since each percent of such changes provokes enormous losses in ecosystems and biodiversity, we emphasize the current need for countries to aim and achieve the most ambitious climate change commitments to stabilize the increase of temperature, i.e. within 1.5 °C. Our comparison platform included also SDMs of some trees (oak, beech, spruce, pine, linden, and birch — Quercus robur, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies, Pinus silvestris, Tilia cordata, Betula spp.), as well as SDM for the marten (Martes martes), for all of which we had already developed GLM-by-2050. Consequently, the new projections demonstrated that all habitats of the red squirrel and associated species are expected to shift mostly ‘to the north’ by 2100, and their localities in the Caucasus Mountain areas might be fragmented. Most likely, in nature, this complicated displacement revealed by the mentioned modelling will happen not in the form of direct migration of individuals ‘to the north’, but through active synanthropization of the red squirrel. How durable and satisfactory this mechanism is for natural selection remains a mystery. The territories from which S. v. ukrainicus (Mygulin, 1928) historically originated and was described have changed significantly: the respective landscape ecosystem losses have reached up to 50 % and more. By 2100, significant habitat changes are likely to be also demonstrated by beech and birch. This research can be used by educators in teaching the history of science, applied ecology, nature conservation, and geoinformatics in biology. This research is dedicated to the Squirrel Year 2020.

Key words: red squirrel, Sciurus vulgaris, SDM, WorldClim, SSP, RCP, Ukraine, Eastern Europe.

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Red squirrel habitats change modelling in Eastern Europe in the scope of climate change according to new generation scenarios by 2100 (PDF, in Ukrainian)

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