Birches (Betula): 7 species, GLM

Training-package
Publications
Species profiles
- BeechBeech: model of expected distribution in 2050 by GLM (forced by climate) . current potential distribution Differences in current distribution map and distribution (see please picture above), predicted by model (based on climatic requirements, modelled by GLM) are relatively significant. . The map shows expected changes in Beech (Fagus sylvatica) distribution to 2050 due to climate changes. Map visualize appearance of the climatic suitable territories for beech on east to 2050 (which is actually steppe and potentially can’t be acceptable for Fagus sylvatica survival by other options). Note please that not all of the predicted “potentially suitable” (by climate parameters) territory contain suitable habitats. Model is based on GLM methodology. Input climate data derived from IMAGE model, distribution map compiled based on Biodat maps. . . Map authors: G.Kolomytsev, V.Prydatko Last update: June 09, 2008. . Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) habitat changes modelling result demonstrates: i) possible enlargement (restoration) of the species natural habitats – Scenario #1, and ii) possible artificial enlargement of the habitats to the East ‘for cost’ of settlements i.e. its green zones (gardens, parks etc.) – in the GLOBIO Ukraine Region. See full animated story about trends: Fagus sylvatica L. areal changes were modelled with usage…
- Brown bearBrown Bear (Ursus arctos) habitats change modelling in EEBIO Region in scope of the IMAGE climate change data: GLM-scenarios by 2050 Ursus arctos L.: natural habitat changes and accidental GSF-response by settlements based on open Internet sources, GSF software and RS- and GIS-analyze (1970, 2007) GSF is an additional searchable test-program made in ULRMC for the project purposes [1], and which used available Internet sources. GSF calculates number of causes, when Latin names of selected species were connected with a GIS-name of a settlement plus a year (for a concrete territory): ‘Ursus arctos 2007’, Ursus arctos 1970’ etc. A basic authors’ hypothesis was that series of respective settlements may adjoin ‘natural’ or ‘past-natural’ habitats of the species or respective species migratory areas. There were 20891 settlement names in the GSF-GIS test and that was overlapped with modeled U.arctos natural habitat based on RS data and special GIS analyze [2]. The map in GIS showed that during 1970-2007 number of cases of the responses increased (against a background of slowly destroyed original habitats!) Authors suppose that it is not only result of increasing of awareness of local people or mass media, but also result of the species movement, and which populations…
- Eurasian ElkAlces alces: model of expected distribution in 2050 by GLM (forced by climate) . current potential distribution (note that for lagre mammal besides climate options spacious habitats presence are very important, so even in 50×50 km pixel elk can be absent even if climate is acceptable) Additionally, supported populations of elk can be found in Ukraine, which do not reflect natural distribution (and do not included into model). . The map shows expected changes in elk (Alces alces) distribution to 2050 due to climate changes. Distribution data from 1970s to 2000 based on EEBIO project materials compiled from different sources. Prediction in elk distribution to 2050 modelled by IMAGE climate predictions using GLM approach. . . Map authors: G.Kolomytsev, V.Prydatko Last update: June 10, 2008. The map reflects key data based on: BioDAT (in Russian) – www.biodat.ru, prepared by A. Puzachenko; Russian Federation Mammals (in Russian) – www.sevin.ru, prepared by B.Sheftel; and the data of Ukraine State Statistics Committee The integrated map shows probable changes of the species area (expansion to the North and to the South) during last 25 years may be bacause of serious forest area changes and infrasrtucture increasing. Alces alces (elk) climate envelope building (continuing) in…
- Pedunculate OakPedunculate Oak (Quercus robur): Climate Change and Cartographical and GLM-distribution Modelling by 2030 and 2050 Case-research #1 The model is published with the assistance of ULRMC, funded by ‘Projection of Species- and Species-Climate Based Models on to the GLOBIO Ukraine Region, and Scenarios Development’ Project according to the Contract Е/555050/01/МО (2006) between The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP, Bilthoven) and International Association ‘Ukrainian Land and Resource Management Center’ (ULRMC, Kyiv). Quercus robur (Fagaceae) – current and predicted distribution modelling The table shows a difference: ‘current distribution’ contrary to ‘predicted distribution’ by the model (based on climatу change data i.e. GLM-scenario). The map shows expected changes in distribution of Q. robur by 2050 due to well known climate changes. Map visualizes a shift of expected potentially-suitable-habitats of the species to the north. The model is based on GLM method and R-statistics. The basic climate change data is derived from an IMAGE model package. The integrated distribution map was compiled with usage of data from local sources of the information as well as the Flora Europaea Atlas map. Map authorы: G.Kolomytsev (IZ NASU), V.Prydatko (ULRMC. Published on: May 12, 2008. Last updated on: May 1, 2009. Case-research #2 Quercus robur (Fagaceae): overlap…
- Red squirrelRed squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris) habitats change modelling in EEBIO Region in scope of the IMAGE climate change data: GLM-scenario by 2050 V.Makarenko, V.Prydatko, G.Kolomytsev Sciurus vulgaris Linnaeus, 1758 red squirrel, eurasian red squirrel ardilla roja (spanish), ecureuil roux (french) vyvirka, vyvirka lisova (ukr) Red Squirrel is most abundant species in large tracts of coniferous forest and also occurs in deciduous woods, mixed forest, parks, gardens, and small stands of conifers. Its diet is mainly vegetarian, consisting of seeds, acorns, fungus, bark, and sapwood, although it occasionally takes animal prey (young birds and eggs). The main expected threats to this species in EEBIO (and GLOBIO Ukraine) region are habitat loss and fragmentation. Simple comparison of basic ‘1980s’ and ‘1990s’ maps in GIS environment demonstrated probable changes of species areal. Official local statistics in Ukraine state that the trend looks stable. Based on our polynomial approximation test of 3th-degree (R2=0.97) we could argue that it would not be stable by 2050. GLM scenario shows that the species habitats have migrate to the northern areas (N) and partly to Crimea; finally, the areal will be smaller in GLOBIO Ukraine Region. See more with a summarized table on BioModel web-page. The model is published…
- Stone morokoStone moroko Pseudorasbora parva Temminck & Schlegel, 1846 (Cypriniformes, Cyprinidae) SYNONYMS Fundulus virescens, Leuciscus parvus, Micraspius mianowskii, Pseudorasbora altipinna, Pseudorasbora depressirostris, Pseudorasbora fowleri, Pseudorasbora monstrosa, Pseudorasbora parva parvula, Pseudorasbora parva tenuis, Pseudorasbora parvus Common names: Stone moroco, topmouth gudgeon, false razbora (GB), Blaubandbarbling, Amurbarbling, Pseudokeilfleckbarbe, Asiatischer Grundling (DE), Bandgrundling (DK), Ebarasboora (EE), Rytinis gruzlelis (LT), Amuras cebaceks (LV), czebaczek amurski (PL), Tschebatchek, Cebacok amurskij (RU). Stone moroko is a fish belonging to the Cyprinid family, native to Asia, but introduced and now considered an invasive species in Europe. The fish’s size is rarely above 8cm and usually 2 to 7.5cm long. Minimum temperature for reproduction is 15-19oC. Native range The native range of P. parva is the East Asian subregion including the basins of the rivers Amur, Yang-tze, Huang-ho, Japanese islands (Kiusiu, Sikoku and the southern and central parts of Honsiu), western and southern parts of the Korean Peninsula and Taiwan (Minkiang river system). In Europe it was first recorded in 1961 from southern Romania and Albania. In 1972 the species was recorded from the European part of the former USSR – the Danube delta and Dniester. In slightly over 40 years it has almost entirely colonised Europe, proceeding rapidly…
- All profilesThis BioModel-web section includes some separate description (examples) of species profiles, which reflects unique details and outcome of the modelling as well as other regional and local supportive details i.e. alternative scenarios. (Note: see more updated GLM-species-scenarios as for May 2009 here as well as modelling summary and/or data for downloads). The expected examples will take into account two key causes of change i.e. ‘land use’ [LU] and ‘climate change’ [CC]. Some previous regionally sound research have demonstrated that LU-pressure could be much more intensive contrary to that ‘CC-pressure’ or it would be a combination of these both factors. On the other hand that distribution shifts are more distinct on regional or global scale due to climate change. Proposed profiles will content respective examples and descriptions. For the EEBIO Project BioModel team produced and incorporated more local scientific data into updated ‘EcoProfile 2.1′ data base of MNP (RIVM). Now the package contents 167 species profiles including 90 new species that were entered during February-May (mammals – 27, vascular plants – 25, invertebrates – 12). Population trends were lighted in points (i.e. from 0 to 100) and in scope of the natural zones: Carpathian Mountainous, Crimea Mountainous, Ukrainian Steppe, Ukrainian Forest-Steppe and Polissya…
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The GLM-scenarios of birch trees habitat changes (Betula sp. – i.e. B.pendula, B.microlepis, B.pubescens, B.humilis*, B.klokovii*, B.obscura*, B. borysthenica*) demonstrate:

i) migration of B.pubescens and B.humilis – to the northern part of Betula sp. areal,

ii) migration of all Betula sp. (selected seven species) to western and north-western part of the Project area. See full animated story at the BioModel web.

Betula sp. areal changes were modelled in the Region with usage of historical, GIS and RS data. 1)«Хорология флоры Украины» (1986). 2) «Екофлора України» (2004). 3) Vegetation of European Part of the USSR: Analytical Maps I-IX (Attachments)/Vegetation of European Part of the USSR. S.P., Nauka, 1980.—429 pp, Rus. 5) Atlas Florae Europaeae (1972-1996), edited by Jaakko Jalas and Juha Suominen, together with Raino Lampinen (Vol. 11)/Updated 2004-05-26 by Mikko Heikkinen – Website at http://www.fmnh.helsinki.fi/english/botany/afe/ . 6) Ukraine Forest in 1990s based on Landsat Data (ULRMC, 2005). 7) Ukraine Forest in 2000s based on Landsat Data. In addition – the Red Data Book of Ukraine (1996). These four species are from the Red Data Book of Ukraine (1996) – B.humilis, B.klokovii, B.obscura, B. borysthenica.The project modelled for the first time that predicted changes of natural habitats of all seven birch species inside of the GLOBIO Ukraine Region. Main causes of changes are not interpreted definitely, but it can be land use (deciduous forest fragmentation and (for some species – wetlands fragmentation)), and climate change (based on GLM scenarios). The GIS map authors: V.Makarenko, V.Prydatko, G.Kolomytsev, O.Petrichenko (ULRMC).

Last update: July 1, 2008.

2 Comments

R.B. · Tuesday January 11th, 2011 at 03:32 PM

Я студент НУБіП, лісогосподарський факультет. Мене цікавить дане дослідження зміни ареалу видів берези. Хотілось би детальніше ознайомитися із цим дослідженням. Найбільше мене цікавить методологія та вихідні дані. Чи опубліковані результати цього дослідження в наукових виданнях, в Інтернеті, чи в інших загальнодоступних джерелах? Чи була дана праця частиною чиєїсь дисертаційної роботи, з якою я міг би ознайомитись в дисертаційному фонді НУБіП, бібліотеки Вернадського, чи Українського інституту науково-технічної та економічної інформації?

Vasyl Prydatko · Tuesday January 11th, 2011 at 03:46 PM

Вперше результат моделювання (SDM-GLM) очікуваної зміни ареалу берези (7 видів) в Україні, точніше більшої території – це проекту EEBIO, який включав частково або повністю 12 країн Європи, був оприлюднений у наступних публікаціях (тут і далі навожу цитування за сучасним форматом наукового видавництва IGI, у хронологічному порядку):

Prydatko V. (2008, July 1). Birches (Betula): 7 species, GLM. Retrieved from https://biomodel.info/species/birches-betula/

Prydatko,V.I., Yurkiv, M.I., Savchenko, O.I., Kolomytsev, G.A., Kozlova, A.A., Burda, R.I., Chumachenko, S.M., & Antonyak L. (2008, July 14). Final Report. Projection of Species- and Species-Climate Based Models on to the GLOBIO Ukraine Region, and Scenarios Development (Project no. Е/555050/01/МО). Presented to The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP) Under the Service Contract is made on November 14, 2007 [ULRMC # EM-07-503]. ULRMC. Kyiv, 88 pp.

Придатко В., Коломыцев Г. (2008, 11 ноября). Изменение климата в Украине: потери 13% или приобретение 4% биоразнообразия до 2050 года? Український екологічний портал. Отримано з http://www.ecoport.org.ua/ekostatti/?pid=8412&print=1

Prydatko, V. & Kolomytsev, G. (2008). Climate and biodiversity changes by 2050 in GLOBIO Ukraine Region. Ukraine And The Environment Update. Ukrainian-American Environmental Association Newsletter. September 7. Vol. V, No. 34.

Примітка: як Ви бачите, інформація на веб-сторінці БіоМодел з’явилась раніше на тиждень, ніж у спеціальному офіційному звіті, так як створення відповідного дієвого порталу входило в технічне завдання ULRMC. На порталі BioModel викладено те основне, що увійшло у звіт. Цікаві для Вас деталі щодо повидових трендів залишились у звіті , але у словесному варіанті вони потрапили у публікацію для Екопротала та для Щотижневика UAEAN (лінки додаються).

Кропіткий опис методики моделювання було оприлюднено у вже згаданому Final Report. Projection of Species- and Species-Climate Based Models…

Все разом – це інформаційно-технічне надбання ITC, PBL(MNP), Utrecht University – Голландія та УЦМЗР – Україна. Фактично йдеться про SDM (Species Diversity Modelling) у середовищі ArcMap 8x, поєднаному із обробкою даних у статистичному просторі R+ і побудовою GLM-сценаріїв. (У Вікіпедії можете знайти довідку щодо GLM та R+). Кліматична компонента береться із іншої великої моделі – це IMAGE. Перевірка – за критерієм Акайке. Алгоритм досить довгий і,дійсно, складний. Один вид тварини чи рослини – це приблизно 15-17 алгоритмічних кроків. Один день моделювання – один вид. Крім того, є обов’язковою попередня підготовка і адаптація картографічного матеріалу для завантаження у ГІС. Нещодавно цей шлях наважилась конспективно описати у магістерській роботі Н.Старушик із НУБіП – див. тут. Із зрозумілих причин, в описі, який підготувала Н.Старушик, є фрагменти ноу-хау, і до кінця вони нами не розкриваються. FYI: весною цього року IGI має надрукувати книгу, де ми написали окремий розділ про підходи до моделювання

2 Comments

R.B. · Tuesday January 11th, 2011 at 03:32 PM

Vasyl Prydatko · Tuesday January 11th, 2011 at 03:46 PM

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